How we estimate this
Estimates for one year of pollution (2023), in 2024 dollars, from public EPA data and published methods.
- Air-pollution deaths: tons of soot and smog-forming gases × EPA's deaths per ton for that industry.
- Climate deaths: tons of greenhouse gases × one death worldwide by 2100 per 4,434 tons (Bressler 2021).
- Damage: air-pollution deaths × $11.5 million (EPA's value of a life), plus EPA's social cost of greenhouse gases.
- Illness: EPA's cases per ton of lung cancer, heart attacks, strokes, asthma and hospital visits.
- Toxic-chemical deaths and illness: every chemical released to air, water or land (EPA toxic release, air and
water discharge reports) × EPA's TRACI cases per pound → cancers and other illnesses; 31% of cancers end in death (American Cancer Society).
- Not in the death count: deaths from other toxic illness, chemicals EPA has no factor for (manganese, nitrates, acids), and
water permit violations themselves (the extra pollution is counted).
These are model estimates, not counted deaths, and the ranges are wide. Each polluter's page shows its range.
Full sources, methods and caveats are in the project's README. All data is public, from the US EPA,
the Census Bureau and the studies named above.